Hello 👋 and welcome to another issue of this newsletter. To the new subscribers, it’s nice to have you here.
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Some situations or worlds are concave. Others are convex.
A situation where both extremes are better than a lukewarm or mid-ground is a convex disposition.
The opposite, where either extreme is worse than a mid-ground, is a concave disposition.
Horseshoe Theory
This is where both extremes tend to be the same.
Convex
Using the COVID-19 virus, a 100% lockdown and a 0% lockdown were better than a 50% lockdown.
In a 100% lockdown, you had the transmission of the virus in check, but the downside was businesses were closed.
In a 0% lockdown, you had businesses open. However, the spread of the virus was very high.
In a 50% lockdown, businesses were closed, and the virus still spread. This is the worst of both worlds.1
In the tweet below, assuming it is true, we have a convex situation.
Concave
Imagine if you had to choose between full-blown socialism (eat the rich) or full-blown capitalism (total free market). Both situations result in worse outcomes than, say, a mix of both.
A capitalist society with social benefit structures such as health care schemes and food banks etc.
Would you rather take a bath with any extreme temperatures of water(freezing water or boiling water)??
None, I am sure. Lukewarm water would do.
Look at immigration too.
Would allowing everybody in do any better than allowing nobody in? It is best only to allow some.
A heuristic for distinguishing between both is :
If it is the worst of both worlds, it is a convex disposition.
If it is the best of both worlds, it is a concave disposition.
To read more on this, Vitalik Buterin explains it with more concrete examples here: Convex and Concave Dispositions (vitalik.ca)
That wraps it up for this week. See you next Sunday.
Don’t forget to share.
This scenario was true during the early part of the pandemic. Now, it doesn’t seem so. So you all stay safe.